Second of three examinations of America’s triumph

Four years ago, John Shuster, Tyler George, Matt Hamilton and John Landsteiner won USA’s first Olympic gold medal in curling. In this second of three articles we’ll head back to the Miracurl run of Team USA and the redemption of John Shuster. This is a condensed reprint of a Curl With Math blogpost, written immediately after the championship final. In the third article, I’ll look at the improbability behind their incredible run and explain how a USA gold medal helped this writer fulfill a lifelong dream.

The first article includes a look at the eighth end of their semifinal against Kevin Koe and Team Canada. Tyler George joined NFL star Jared Allen on a recent episode of the Rock Logic video podcast to analyze this end and share his memories from this legendary game.

A Redemption Story

Much has been written lately about John Shuster and the label he has carried. It’s tough enough spending your life dedicated to a sport that many Americans are either unaware of or chuckle about every four years when it appears on their television. In the early days of Wikipedia, it must have been cool to search and find your name, but to discover it’s been added to the Urban Dictionary as a synonym for choking? Even Johnny Miller wouldn’t go that far.

Curling is a sport (yes, it is) that involves big muscles for sweeping, small muscles for precision and one big gray blob that’s sort of a muscle and fits between your ears. In a game where finesse is required, adrenaline and nerves can impart the smallest change to the delivery or release of a stone and result in a miss. The re-introduction of curling to the Olympics (officially) in 1998 and the growth of sponsorship and televised events has led players and teams to raise their level of play over the past two decades. Shotmaking has improved considerably, but also mental preparation and the ability for teams to be more consistent and reach their potential despite the enormity of the moment. But it’s still sports.

The clearest example of mental control driving small muscles is golf. How can Scott Hoch miss a two-foot putt that he makes on a practice green (or at another event) 100 times out of 100? Because he’s on the 10th hole at Augusta National, in a sudden-death playoff, attempting to win a green jacket. Twenty years later, Kenny Perry birdies the 16th hole, then hooks his next two drives leading to consecutive bogeys and loses the Masters.

Canadian curling fans may remember one of its greatest players, Kevin Martin, had a similar collapse on the very same day as Kenny. In control and tied with final rock in the last end against Scotland, Team Martin gets into a hot mess. Kevin inexplicably decides to throw away his first skip stone of the end, misses his last, and hands David Murdoch the world championship.

John Shuster deserves every accolade in the coming weeks and months. Being a curler, he’ll likely be the first to remind everyone that he couldn’t have done it without the team (Tyler George, Matt Hamilton and John Landsteiner). Unlike football, where an NFL quarterback receives $20M per year while being protected by lineman making $1M a year, curlers share their winnings equally. 

You can make the argument that both Canada in the semifinal and Sweden in the gold medal game lost because they played poorly. This is unfair to Team Shuster. Championships are rarely about two teams who play their best and the better (or luckier) wins. As often as a sporting event will unfold by the script we expect (2012 Heat, 2017 Warriors, most Yankees championships), often we see the opposite. Just this past decade we have the 2011 Mavericks, 2012 Kings, 2014 Giants, 2012 Ravens, and 2018 Eagles; all teams Vegas pegged as longshots before their respective playoffs began. Isn’t that why we watch?

If Canada had performed to their highest level, USA would likely have played for a bronze medal. What John Shuster and his team showed was the ability to play their very best when it mattered. Despite the early setbacks (2-4 start) and even later ones (see fifth end versus Sweden) they held together mentally and when the dust had settled, earned the gold medals. I don’t think you can argue that Team Shuster took advantage of their underdog position.

We often overlook a team or player succeeding because they were loose, playing like they had “nothing to lose.” John Shuster only had the scrutiny of an entire nation, a high-performance program that rejected him and his name coined as a verb for failure. Players and teams often have to lose one or more times before they can attain the next level. The list is long and includes the 1983 Oilers, ’85 Giants, ’03 Red Sox, Tom Watson, Mike Weir, Jordan Spieth…and curlers like Al Hackner, Pat Ryan, Kevin Martin, and possibly anyone who has every laced up sneakers, skates, spikes, or a slider.

Some never return to those moments again, the many battle scars actually prevent rather than enable the person to rise above their past disappointments. After six games, it looked like John Shuster might suffer that fate. Thankfully, for him and his team, and the (now growing) number of fans, the summit was reached.

First End: 0-0, SWE Hammer

Edin was 101-22 starting with hammer the past two seasons, including 47-6 in his last 54 games. Two of those losses however, came from Team Shuster. This USA team had actually beaten Edin in three of the previous four games, so if there were any nerves it wasn’t because they lacked confidence against their opponent.

First rock goes in, Sweden hits, and the blank is on. Now everyone can breathe a little.

Second End: 0-0, SWE Hammer

Centre guard then corner guard, game on. On his first, John considers going around the centre, but decides to hit the Swedish rock at the back of the rings.

As John might have suspected, Niklas ignores the USA rock and goes around, biting the top four foot.

John’s original call looks conservative, avoiding any chance of three but possibly increasing the chance for a Swedish deuce. In retrospect, if Shuster had instead gone behind the centre where Edin placed his stone, he could have pressured Niklas early in the contest and gotten a force of a single point or possibly a steal. If he made a poor shot on his first and Edin makes a great shot, worst case he can remove the back stone on his last shot and concede the deuce, avoiding the three in either case.

John may have been thinking further ahead, wanting to play the runback on his final stone, attempting to stick it behind cover of his delivered rock or the red corner guard. Runbacks look difficult, but top players range from 75-85% success and often use it as an offensive weapon in the modern game.

I prefer John draws on his first shot because he can dictate the proximity to the button and increase a steal chance, but it’s more a preference of setting up his last shot than a tactical mistake. In this case, John misses the runback and Sweden draw for two points.

In the last four years, Niklas Edin up two points without hammer and eight ends remaining: 16-1.

Sixth End: 4-3 SWE, USA Hammer

Edin misses a runback on his first shot, allowing Shuster a chance to sit two. Difficult to find a spot that won’t leave a double, but they are able to draw close to the Swedish stone at the back of the rings in an ideal position. An example of how rock placement is critical.

Shuster isn’t perfect, they wanted the rock closer to the Swedish stone in the back twelve-foot, but Niklas is only left with a hit and roll on John’s stone at the back, hoping to duck behind cover of the USA stone at the top eight foot and leave a more difficult shot for two. It overcurls and John is left with a draw for two. WP for USA jumps from 35.6% if they had been forced to one to 60.4% with that extra point.

Eighth End: 5-5, USA Hammer

Midway through the end, Shuster has a decision to make—continue peeling guards or go into the rings. On Tyler’s first stone they switch to aggressive play, attempting a hit and roll on the red stone behind the button. The rock overcurls, jamming the Swedish stone at the back, however USA sits two.

In what may have been another shot of the game, Oskar’s draw attempt rubs the yellow in the top eight foot, leaving his stone open rather than buried on the button.

That fraction of an inch is the difference between a possible steal or force and what happens next.

Tyler fails to make the double, but his shooter sticks around and USA sits one, two, three and five. Notice there have been several half shots by USA but Sweden is going for broke at this stage and can’t dare switch to damage control trying to remove these stones. A deuce by USA would drop Sweden’s WP to 13.7%. It’s force, steal or a prayer at this stage.

Edin’s first draw attempt hangs straight and Shuster is able to hit and roll away. Before his last, Niklas calls a timeout, looking at this:

“And you may ask yourself, well ... how did I get here?” — David Byrne/Talking Heads

The hit and roll attempt fails to get behind cover and USA is left with a double for five points. Shuster calmly makes the shot of his life and the game is, for all intents and purposes, over. Gold medal. Well done.

Epilogue: Will this launch curling to new heights in the USA? Probably not. But it can’t hurt. In the very least, perhaps the Urban Dictionary will direct the web link for “Shuster” to a new word, “Miracurl.” Suggested definition: “An unheralded person or team, holding brooms, achieves the unexpected on a sheet of ice, painted with rings and covered with granite stones.”