First of three deep dives into America’s triumph
Four years ago, John Shuster, Tyler George, Matt Hamilton and John Landsteiner won USA’s first Olympic gold medal in curling. In a series of three articles, we’ll head back to the Miracurl run of Team USA and the redemption of John Shuster.
The first two articles are condensed reprints of blogposts from Curl With Math, written immediately after the semifinal and championship final. In the third article, I’ll look at the mathematical improbability behind their incredible run and explain how a USA gold medal helped this writer fulfill a lifelong dream.
This first article includes a look at the eighth end of their semifinal against Canada’s Kevin Koe. Tyler George joins ex-NFL pro and fourth-year curler Jared Allen on the latest episode of Rock Logic to analyze this end, and share his memories from that legendary game.
Miracurl on Ice
At the risk this phrase may have become part of the sports vernacular by the time I write this, kudos to Twitter’s @PeteJolicoeur who first coined “Miracurl” on Twitter after USA defeated Canada in the semifinals of the 2018 PyeongChang Olympic Winter Games. Careful not to Google it, or you’ll find that MiraCurl is in fact a Professional Curl Machine that will leave your hair with an 80s perm your preteen self may have always wanted. With digital marketing what it is, you may also receive shampoo ads on your smartphone for the next six months.
Even if you are not a hockey fan, the Miracle on Ice from Lake Placid in 1980 is a seminal moment, with USA shocking the world by defeating the Soviet Union and ultimately taking Olympic gold. You could make an argument that hockey leapt from obscurity in the American sports scene to take a stronghold as one of the big four (kinda?). Perhaps curling will take a leap from its position of punchlines in a stand-up routine to a legitimate sport only mocked in affection. Perhaps more Americans will join Mr. T, The Boss, George Clooney, Homer and countless others, and get hooked on the game each winter rather than just every four years.
With all due respect to mini-Herb Brooks, the comparisons of Team Shuster to the 1980 USA Hockey team is an unfair comparison. That USA hockey team had no chance. If I were allowed to gamble at eight years old someone named Vinny or Rocco would still be looking for me.
John Shuster is battle-tested, having appeared in four Olympic Winter Games and seven world championships, including bronze at the 2016 worlds. The knock on this team has been their many international appearances without reaching the summit, but I had them as dark horses heading into this event. The key final round robin draw (yes, curlers call a series of games a “draw”) against Great Britain was an example of how they could draw (different definition here) on that experience to execute at the biggest moment while minimizing any strategic errors or mental mistakes.
From the vantage point on my couch, the Kyle Smith squad is talented, but lacked the composure that comes from having been in the moment before. Shuster is deserving of the medal and he has earned it, not just this week but after years of preparation.
Included here are excerpts of my analysis from 2018. If you’d like to see the full article examining nearly every end, go here.
Second End: 0-0, CAN Hammer
Canada third Marc Kennedy, perhaps the greatest double peel thrower in history, misses both of his attempts and in fact jams on his last shot to leave USA sitting two…
Shuster chooses to hit and roll off the Canada stone at nine o’clock. As Canadian broadcaster (and 1986 world champion Ed Lukowich telestrates, it’s a conservative call. They have Canada on the ropes and might be better drawing to sit three and block the path to the button.
I understand their concern. With Kevin Koe you are always worried about leaving a big shot for three or more points and John is being cautious to limit Canada to no worse than two. However, he may in fact be increasing the odds that Kevin gets two. Kevin Koe up two with eight ends remaining is 30-5 (86%) since 2010.
I’m in Fast Eddie’s camp here and would have liked USA to bring the pressure, even if it introduces a risk of three points. When you are the underdog, it’s important to take chances and this is a great opportunity that may not come later. Even as the favorite, I expect Kevin would have played the draw in this situation. USA is fortunate that Koe’s draw was heavy and Canada settles for only one point.
Fifth End: 2-1 CAN, USA Hammer
An interesting strategy by Canada to place two centre guards nearly backfires as USA seems poised to score a bunch.
This is a very unorthodox call by Koe. The double centre guard is a very aggressive play that is most often used when tied or down without hammer and often not this early in the game.
Revisiting this article from the previous Olympics, of note is the shift in strategy in only a few years, primarily due to the change in rules with the five-rock free guard zone replacing four-rock. Kevin Koe using double centre guards before the halfway mark when leading by one was a puzzling move back then. Around that time, teams would generally use double centre guards without hammer if they were tied or behind in the late stages. Today, this tactic is used more often at various times throughout a game. When I spoke with Kevin months later about this decision, his rationale was to limit the chance of Shuster using the corner guard and, in that moment, he wanted to force play to the middle.
Eighth End: 2-2, CAN Hammer
On skip’s first, John could hit to sit two but chooses to draw behind centre instead …
A deuce for Canada (USA WP=14%) is only 9% better than a three (WP=5%) so the strategy is to create a force or steal, even at the risk of a big end for your opponent. I like the call because Kevin would either be left with a double to sit two, a hit and roll to sit first and third buried (often pronounced “berried”), or have the opportunity to draw top button, leaving a difficult shot for USA and a likely deuce. Better for John to attempt to make the draw first, but ... don’t be heavy (he is).
Kevin has a great chance to score here but instead rubs the rock in the top 12. A great roll by John and Kevin, going wider with a different path, surprisingly comes well short with his attempt and an unlikely steal of two puts Canada behind with two ends to go.
Ninth End: 4-2 USA, CAN Hammer
It appears to be another blank end until Shuster’s last shot. Rather than hitting the Canada stone in the back four-foot, John chooses to try a freeze and force Canada to a single.
I dislike this call, and luckily for USA, Kevin misses a makeable shot for two and is forced to a single. I understand what John is thinking. At worst, surrender two and have final stone in the last end (WP=79% for top teams, 75% average). The problem I see is that in most cases he will either leave a blank anyway, or a shot for two points (which he did). Leave the blank and USA is up two points in the final end, WP = 89%. If Kevin takes one (which was the result) USA’s WP only increase 1% to 90%! The outcome USA took a risk (10%) to achieve, only netted them a 1% advantage. Teams in the past in Koe’s situation (two down in the ninth end) have sometimes intentionally taken a single point. Kevin Martin did this in 2007 against Blake MacDonald to win the Alberta provincial final and qualify for the Brier (Canadian Championship). Blake was the fourth for that team (threw the final stones). The skip was Kevin Koe.
Another example of how the strategy of the sport has changed since this was written. I still believe this call was not the preferred option then. Today, however, five-rock FGZ rules provide a better opportunity for a team two down in the final end. More importantly, top men’s teams have recently gone from an 80% win percentage when tied with hammer to creeping over 90%. In fact, many teams now prefer to be tied with the final shot in the last end, rather than be ahead by two points. I wrote about this in 2020.
Canada clearly had an off game but Team Shuster were ready for the moment. They were able to keep it close—despite starting without hammer—and eventually capitalize in the right situations. Koe failed to score more than a single in the game, something that had not happened during the entire round robin portion of the event.
USA started 2-4 and have won four in a row, against the two tiebreaker teams (Great Britain and Switzerland) and twice against the three-time Canadian and two-time world champion.
Raise a glass to the lads from Duluth, MN (and one from McFarland, WI) … and then on to Sweden.