Re-evaluating Olympic Mixed Doubles Curling Speculations

After Saturday, it is time to re-evaluate the mixed doubles speculations.

Before the competition, my analysis was based mainly on pre-tournament history and long-term performance trends. Now, after six-seven games, we have a much clearer picture of the teams’ current levels – but also some confusing results.

There is still plenty of room for surprises, but let’s take a closer look at what we have learned so far.

The “To Win” estimates are based on observed performance during the tournament and on how the available data currently looks. It is important to remember that player shooting percentages are only rough indicators. Every experienced curling athlete and coach knows, and has known for many years, how misleading individual shot statistics can be.

However, when viewed in a broader context, the numbers can still tell an interesting story.

Let’s look at the performances in three categories per gender.

Female Players

Great Britain’s Jennifer Dodds has been steady through the first seven games. italy’s Stefania Constantini had a lower period in the beginning, but has performed well the last three games.

Both teams lost against Great Britain with lower performance of their female athletes and it continued against lower-ranked teams Estonia and Korea, resulting in losses.

In this group, we can see extremely high performance, but for reasons unknown there can be a sudden drop.

These players can be great at their best, but can also make too many unforced errors.

Male Players  

Bruce Mouat had a slow start, but has improved game by game. The other three have performed at their high level all six games.

It might be the battle between Italy and Sweden for the last spot in top four, which is possible if Sweden defeats both Canada and USA.

It’s hard to predict how Mosaner and Wrana will play the last games. Both have great potential, but it does not always turn into good shots.

Jeong and Chabicovsky are improving as their relative experience on this level accumulates. Lill has come down after a strong start, but will probably improve again towards the end. 

Too often, sport journalists and opinion pundits put thoughts and emotions into athletes’ heads without really knowing what is going on. It is simply unfair to claim that someone “did not handle the pressure” without concrete evidence. In reality, we can only guess what lies behind the numbers.

A good example is Sweden’s match against Estonia. Sweden had a chance for six points in the first end. The stone was released well and ended up only about one centimetre short of perfection. Instead of six, they scored only one point — and eventually lost the game. In the following two matches, Isabella Wrana clearly underperformed.

But past performance does not always predict future results. Isabella returned to a high level, and Sweden has since scored two important wins. The key question now is whether they can truly challenge Canada and the USA.

Both those teams have performed strongly overall, but there are some question marks after their fifth and sixth games: both lost to Great Britain, and later Canada lost to Estonia while the USA fell to South Korea.

Italy is in a strong position to secure one of the playoff spots if Sweden fails to win both of their final games against Canada and the USA. Italy also faces the USA, which means that both remaining USA matches carry very high stakes.

In addition, the USA still needs to beat Estonia — a team that has just defeated Canada. Having already lost their medal hopes, Estonia can now play more freely, focusing on one win at a time without external pressure.

Meanwhile, Mouat and Dodds have improved game by game — a pattern that often predicts a medal run. While others are struggling, they increasingly look like a team heading for gold. They also display the typically UK-polite way of respecting each other by apologizing even for their smallest mistakes — something many married teammates could learn from.

After finishing fourth in Beijing, gold is likely for Great Britain. Unless, of course, a team with unpredictable performance peaks at exactly the right moment.