Final three games conjured every emotion
Tense. Thrilling. Nail-biting. Shocking. Exhilarating. Heartbreaking.
The final three games of the 2025 Brier conjured every emotion from fans and players.
After dispensing of Brad Jacobs on the Friday afternoon, Brad Gushue appeared poised to win a record seventh Brier. Jacobs fell back a full game and would need to win four straight playoff games with the knowledge he’d been unable to win even a single one since losing the final to Pat Simmons in 2015.
The Page qualifier loss to Gushue made it 11 straight Brier losses in post round-robin games through the past decade, save for a bronze medal victory in 2016 that likely does not sit high in Brad’s trophy case.
Jacobs kicked off his playoff run by halting his losing streak, leading 6-1 at the break and ultimately downing Owen Purcell of Nova Scotia 10-6.
In his next test, Jacobs methodically built control against his 2024 teammate Reid Carruthers. A steal of two in the ninth end brought the Manitoba Tankard winner back to even, but Brad was able to execute with hammer in the 10th end and reach the semifinal.
He and his Alberta team of past champions could rest and watch Saturday night’s Page 1 vs 2 battle to see who they would meet on Sunday morning.
Matt Dunstone started with hammer but was held to a single in the first end and Gushue scored a deuce in the second. Back and forth play left Dunstone tied after seven ends with the hammer.
In the eighth end Gushue placed a centre guard with his lead’s first stone. Statistically, Gushue is okay with a blank in this end. Win probability tied without last rock in nine is only slightly worse (27.8%) than the position he’s in now starting the eighth end (29.5%).
Brad could choose to call for the first rock in the rings, but he fears Matt will place a corner guard and would prefer to keep play to the middle. A deuce in this situation would be crushing, dropping his win probability to 8.2%. More on this situation later.
A blank in the eighth leaves Matt tied with hammer and two ends remain. To new fans who cry out for a change to blank ends, please watch this end (you can catch it on Curling Plus). The gameplay exemplifies why the ability to blank and control the hammer adds—rather than detracts—from the sport.
With six rocks remaining in the ninth end, Canada sits second deep in the rings, behind Dunstone’s shot stone in the top four-foot rings. Matt also has a biter at 10 o’clock.
A diverse strategy is at play over the course of the remaining shots. Brad is trying to create a force but is at risk of giving up a deuce or blank. Dunstone is okay with a blank or a deuce, which leaves close to the same win probability—about 90%—but fears being held to a single, where win probability drops to 61.1%.
On Mark Nichols’ last stone, Gushue has a choice to guard or play into the rings. If the rules were altered and hammer flipped after a blank, there is no thought to tactics and the only choice is whether to play an in- or out-turn on the hit. Brad chooses to hit and sit third.
Before Colton Lott plays his final shot, E.J. Harnden slides down for a discussion which leads to a timeout. It is a delicate dance to strategically maneuver an end towards two preferred outcomes (blank or deuce) which are generated from wildly different tactics.
The decision is complex because of the rules. If Dunstone were to lose hammer with a blank, they would simply be playing aggressively with only one thought in mind: score a deuce. When a new viewer can understand and appreciate the layers of this type of situation, their fascination with curling deepens and you have a fan for life.
Eventually, the Manitobans choose a difficult slash double and Lott makes a spectacular shot. Brad draws behind the Manitoba stone because he must create a force. This uncommon shot takes more precision than at first glance and Gushue barely hangs on with a biter on the backline.
It is interesting to consider—if Gushue had gone through the rings, would Matt have peeled his own stone out of play?
As it stands, Dunstone could try to run his stone back to keep a blank in play but instead chooses to draw down to the Gushue stone and bump it out of play. Brad now must decide if he would prefer to be two down with hammer or tied without.
I’ve written before this is a choice between two bad situations with a roughly 10% win probability. Numbers generally side towards being tied without but, when these decisions are close, top teams lean towards having hammer.
Rather than a double (which would lead to a blank) Gushue plays a delicate hit and roll to the wings, making Matt’s attempt at two as difficult as possible. He executes it to perfection, but Dunstone is able to make the hit and stick for the two points.
The 10th end provides more drama. Canada second Brendan Bottcher locks his first stone onto Dunstone’s rock on the top four foot. A few shots later, Manitoba follows Mark Nichols’ around a corner guard, behind the tee-line.
This begins a stacking of rocks under the corner until Gushue is left with a chance to not only tie but possibly win the game.
There never appeared to be a discussion by Manitoba to tap the original Bottcher stone on their final few shots.
With a heavy draw, Dunstone could have tapped off-nose, building staggered protection at the top of the eight foot to sit first and third with shot stone protected. It would be a delicate shot, and the wrong positioning could be fatal, but they may have avoided leaving a makeable double for the win.
Which they did, but Brad missed.
The semifinal rematch between Jacobs and Gushue was next, and “Battle of the Brads” has become a common phrase from TSN’s Vic Rauter over the last 15 years.
According to CurlingZone, before this match-up they had gone head-to-head 63 times since 2008, with Gushue ahead with 34 total wins including seven of the last 10.
It was a sensational contest. Yes, there were three blank ends to start the game. The first end was ho-hum but the second and third offered great shotmaking and uncertain outcomes until skip rocks.
Like a baseball game, curling builds up over the course of each end (inning) and in a close contest, the intensity increases. Not every inning features a two-run home run and if they did, some fans would complain there should be more grand slams.
Jacobs appeared to be in control until Gushue cracked a three-ender in the eighth. He rebounds with a deuce in nine, losing out on a measure for three, providing fans with the most compelling final end scenario, one down with hammer for the defending Canadian champions.
A thrilling 15 minutes that culminates with a shocking miss by the six-time Brier winner, sending Jacobs to the final.
The semifinal may have been the most entertaining Brier curling game of this decade, but the final gave fans heightened tension and suspense.
Part 2, featuring excerpted videos, will be published shortly.