Tales of momentum, timing and luck
CALGARY—There’s a lot that goes into winning a championship like the Scotties. Obviously, there’s an incredible amount of extremely hard work—at events, at the rink for practice, at the gym, with your mental trainers and team dynamics coaches and so on.
Here’s the part that’s talked about less: there’s also an intangible element. A “meant to be” component. Something that happens to the eventual champions because it’s their turn.
There’s nothing scientific about this, and there are likely people who will disagree, but I truly believe in it.
You have to do a lot of things to win including:
• play very well
• control your emotions—while also letting them out when necessary
• manage your team and its dynamics
• deal with distractions; twists and turns and unexpected events.
I once had a mental trainer who tasked us to do one thing every day that made us uncomfortable leading up to the Olympic Trials. His rationale—which is correct—is that we would be uncomfortable at the Trials. And not occasionally. A lot.
He urged us to get comfortable with being uncomfortable, which sounds like an oxymoron, but it actually does work. By actively seeking discomfort you learn to process it differently and in turn, handle it better. Mental toughness is no different than any other skill … you have to train it.
Without looking back at every championship, I would wager you could point to a moment where something happened—maybe a lucky result on a thrown rock, a missed shot by another team, or a seemingly unimportant note from practice—that factored into the winning team pulling off the victory.
Some of them are obvious from watching. Like the 2004 Brier final won by Nova Scotia’s Mark Dacey, when the best touch player perhaps ever—but certainly at that time—in David Nedohin missed a freeze that we all would’ve bet money on him making.
And that wasn’t the only thing; three incredible shots in a row from Bruce Lohnes and Dacey were still needed to win, but the door could have closed with David’s made freeze.
I, unfortunately, know all about this sort of thing. I missed a draw to the four-foot at the 2018 Olympic Trials for mixed doubles against our gold-medallists-to-be, Kaitlyn Lawes and John Morris, that would have eliminated them from that event and put myself and my teammate, Colin Hodgson, in a great playoff position.
I think about it to this day.
But if you’re going to win an event in a field as deep as that one, or the Scotties field this week, you have to get some breaks.
Team Homan coach Don Bartlett, in addition to winning a lot of curling titles himself as a player, used to coach Brendan Bottcher. He had a great story to share—which won’t surprise anyone who knows Donnie B. He was talking about the 2021 “Bubble Brier” which was Bottcher’s first Brier win in many finals, and had this to say about the pre-game practice for the semifinal.
“One thing I did that year was, in the semifinal, we didn’t get hammer so we threw some shots,” said Bartlett. “For Brendan’s last practice shot I gave him a corner guard run to take out a shot on the button. He threw it, it overcurled and he missed the shot.
“For his last shot of that game, he had the exact same shot! Darren (Moulding) put the broom down, gave the same ice that I gave, Brendan took more—because he overcurled the shot in practice—and made the shot to win the game.”
This may sound like a small thing, but those small things add up to wins and have a “destiny” aura about them. A degree of serendipity. Why did Coach Don choose a corner guard run as Brendan’s last practice stone? What are the odds that it would be the exact same turn and in the same spot in the ice where he’d throw the shot to win?
It’s one of those moments that gives you goosebumps when you look back after winning, because it feels like there was something bigger at play … your destiny at that event.
On that note, let’s actually watch the shot:
I’ve been on both sides of these myself, as most players have.
I mentioned the 2018 mixed doubles trials and the draw which still haunts me.
I also find myself thinking about a similar one I missed, which eliminated Colin and I from the event.
However, I’ve also been a benefactor.
The 2019 Scotties final was one of the craziest games I’ve ever seen, let alone been part of. When you’re down 5-1 after four ends to arguably the best hitting team in the world, you can’t love your chances.
We were forced in the fifth, so were three down without hammer at the break. I remember thinking I wanted to ask our coach (my dad) at the fifth-end break how many ends we were required to play in the final. I thought about it the whole break, but something held me back from saying it.
We went on to get plenty of breaks from a team who never typically gave those up in the back half, and with some precision from us, somehow managed to pull off a miraculous comeback and win.
I get those previously mentioned goosebumps when I look back at that fifth-end break and the fact that I, for some unknown reason, just couldn’t ask him about the minimum number of ends. If I’d asked that question, I truly don’t believe we would have won that game.
By the way, the odds of us winning dipped well below 1% at several different times during that final (statistically).
It was meant to be.
I’m a very logical, mathematical, scientific-minded person, so thinking this way was never something that came naturally to me. When I was younger, I remember my dad saying to me at one point that “All you can do is get yourself to the final and hope it’s your turn.”
That always stuck with me.
I don’t love the notion of fate or destiny because it can’t be explained, and I don’t like things that can’t be explained. Over the years, though, I saw it happen to other teams, and eventually, I was lucky enough to have it happen to me.
I want to be very clear about one thing here: it doesn’t work if you don’t put in the work. The concept that you have to be good to be lucky is a colloquialism I’ve heard all my life, but it rings true. If you don’t do the right things leading up to the moment—all the work, the mental preparation, the hard team conversations, the compromises—you haven’t put yourself in a position to win. Once you’re in that position, though, you’re likely to get a break or two along the way to that big victory.
When I was mulling over what write for this piece, my eight-year-old nephew Ethan said to my sister: “Sometimes you win because of a good shot, and sometimes you win because of luck. She could talk about that.” How this kid is so insightful at age eight years old, I’ll never know, but in reflecting back on my experiences and all the events I’ve watched over the years, he’s right. You need both.
So … who has “it” this week?
The records make it easy to tell, to some degree. Alberta and Selena Sturmay have put up a very strong performance, which can be even harder to do with hometown team pressure. They’ve also gotten some pretty clear breaks in their journey, which you need to succeed in a week like this.
Manitoba’s Jennifer Jones is the best player I’ve ever seen at making her own breaks when she needs to; it’s uncanny. And it would be very Jones-esque for her to pull off a win in her swan song Scotties—a fitting career end for, in my opinion, the GOAT.
Rachel Homan of Ontario hasn’t needed many breaks so far this week, which isn’t surprising if you’ve watched them earlier this season. I chose them to win before the week started (not exactly going out on a limb there) but I’ll tie this back into the destiny part—it sounds strange to say that someone who has won three previous Scotties titles is “due” to win, but I really believe she is.
There have been several final appearances in the last few years that she easily could have (or arguably should have) won … and they’re still my frontrunner.
Don’t forget about Team Canada and Kerri Einarson, who have done a remarkable job of recovering from an unbelievable blow only hours before their first game with the loss of Briane Harris.
Alternate Krysten Karwacki has fit in very well, is playing amazingly well and—more than that—their team systems and communication are functioning at an incredibly high level with a new player on the ice.
I would be remiss to overlook two more Manitoba teams here—skipped by Kaitlyn Lawes and Kate Cameron—who both looked like they might not make playoffs, but come into the playoff round off some very big wins, which can build momentum.
The other thing that’s key here is that, with the previous Championship Pool setup—yes, the Scotties format has changed—you wouldn’t have much of a chance to win coming in at three or four losses. You’d have to run the table against all the top teams, which is beyond difficult. This year, however, Lawes and Cameron essentially get a fresh start now—look out for these two, who both have an excellent mix of experience and talent.
I know this much for sure: we’re in for a very exciting finish this weekend. And keep your eyes out for the team that gets a break or two along the way … there’s a good chance they’ll be the ones wearing the Maple Leaf when this is all over.